Medium-Factor
0x443e418fbb4f4f1fd9673f4863a4e06a3c4afef8
- Realised P&L
- $-88.1k
- Volume
- $1.53M
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $5.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.138 | 0.160 | $4.8k | +$657.73 |
| Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.003 | $223.49 | −$458.60 |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.4k |
| Will the missing submarine be found by June 23? · No | 0.193 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$192.74 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.9k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? · Yes | 0.207 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.3k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-29.84at 0.008Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30?
- +$-2.0kat 0.200Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$-2.4kat 0.041Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 05:20 | Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0011650013 | $69.90 |
| 09-10 05:20 | Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0019880776 | $59.24 |
| 09-10 05:19 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.141356691 | $4.6k |
| 07-06 02:33 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | SELL | 0.1184691004 | $1.2k |
| 07-06 02:25 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.0364147307 | $1000.00 |
| 07-06 02:25 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.0376341662 | $1.0k |
| 07-06 02:24 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.0399321142 | $1000.00 |
| 07-06 02:23 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.0492040531 | $1.0k |
| 07-06 02:23 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.059712485 | $1.0k |
| 07-06 02:22 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.0687718752 | $1000.00 |
| 07-06 02:22 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.064397795 | $1.0k |
| 07-06 02:22 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.1086226082 | $897.72 |
| 07-06 01:51 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.1469999999 | $1000.00 |
| 07-06 01:50 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.1468245563 | $1000.00 |
| 07-06 01:50 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.1510119303 | $1000.00 |