deduk
0x4438f059afd2d2b496ac22b7603bbac7fef7c62c
- Realised P&L
- $-0.88
- Volume
- $35.62
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $4.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.765 | $1.18 | +$0.07 |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.935 | $1.15 | +$0.02 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.969 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will United Russia win the next Sverdlovsk Oblast Parliament elections? · Yes | 0.980 | 0.956 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.16at 0.865Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?
- +$0.10at 0.913Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$0.01at 0.993Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
- +$0.00at 0.995Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 16?
- +$0.00at 0.993Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 06:07 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.9199999023 | $1.13 |
| 09-14 06:06 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.82 | $0.99 |
| 09-12 18:41 | Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | SELL | 0.981 | $0.15 |
| 09-11 17:45 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8199994588 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 17:45 | Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | SELL | 0.98 | $0.85 |
| 08-31 16:28 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 16:21 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.985 | $1.15 |
| 08-31 16:19 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.9869996605 | $1.16 |
| 08-27 20:06 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 08-27 20:06 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.71 | $0.01 |
| 08-27 20:05 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.88 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 16:44 | Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | BUY | 0.9789999883 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 16:41 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.71 | $0.01 |
| 08-19 16:39 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.71 | $0.84 |
| 08-19 13:18 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7199995392 | $1.00 |