0x44243A44b19c5270b7d75dC2e76D5C2652aa4Cc6-1760315139645
0x44243a44b19c5270b7d75dc2e76d5c2652aa4cc6
- Realised P&L
- $-12.9k
- Volume
- $981.2k
- Markets traded
- 178
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded178
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.1kat 0.630Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in January?
- +$1.5kat 0.226Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$1.4kat 0.734Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of January?
- +$1.1kat 0.141Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$734.70at 0.120Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 19:19 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.004 | $45.22 |
| 10-26 19:16 | Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.109 | $1.88 |
| 10-26 19:16 | Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.108 | $3.24 |
| 10-26 19:13 | Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.068 | $13.60 |
| 10-26 19:13 | Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.067 | $4.42 |
| 10-26 19:13 | Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.06 | $3.80 |
| 10-26 19:12 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.7441214406 | $300.00 |
| 10-26 19:12 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.7197171609 | $300.00 |
| 10-25 23:13 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1359700865 | $100.00 |
| 10-25 23:07 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1598295152 | $300.00 |
| 10-25 22:36 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.6533020521 | $2.3k |
| 10-25 20:08 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2999999994 | $100.00 |
| 10-25 20:03 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.25 | $200.00 |
| 10-25 19:13 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999998 | $200.00 |
| 10-25 19:13 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2099999999 | $200.00 |