PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x4421eA94E6bD90A58Ba14496dfA01D6e68816287-1771866592393

0x4421ea94e6bd90a58ba14496dfa01d6e68816287

Realised P&L
$-4.75
Volume
$9.9k
Markets traded
141
Open portfolio
$170.51

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded141
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration28.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration21.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii by November 30, 2026? · No0.9090.915$36.60+$0.25
Will Guitarricadelafuente win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.8120.798$31.92−$0.56
Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? · No0.7800.710$28.40−$2.80
Will Lost Weekend (Phoebe Bridgers) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? · No0.9450.943$16.97−$0.04
Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes0.9100.905$11.77−$0.07
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · No0.2800.275$11.28−$0.20
Will Louisville win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship? · No0.9230.921$7.38−$0.02
Will "Forgotten Island" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.9190.963$4.82+$0.22
Will Werwulf win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.9130.889$4.45−$0.12
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2026-27 NHL Metropolitan Division? · Yes0.2140.193$3.85−$0.43
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.6300.705$3.52+$0.38
Will Lux (Rosalía) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? · Yes0.1800.215$3.01+$0.49
Will the Indiana Pacers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? · Yes0.6100.480$2.88−$0.78
Will Danielle Deadwyler be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.8830.954$1.91+$0.14
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026-27 NHL Atlantic Division? · Yes0.1400.175$1.57+$0.32

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-31 19:59Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?BUY0.28$11.48
10-31 17:55No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after December 2026 meeting?SELL0.33$1.65
10-31 14:29Will Kaila Charles win the 2026 WNBA Finals MVP?BUY0.96$39.36
10-30 05:57Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?SELL0.07$0.84
10-29 04:04Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.78$5.46
10-29 03:41Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?SELL0.52$2.60
10-29 01:04Will Yaxel Lendeborg win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?SELL0.235$9.63
10-29 00:45Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?SELL0.93$38.13
10-28 16:34Will Penélope Cruz win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.91$4.55
10-28 12:05Will Jaafar Jackson be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.87$3.48
10-28 11:05Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?SELL0.1451813333$2.18
10-28 04:48Will Samantha Morton be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.7$4.20
10-28 04:21Will Samantha Morton be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?BUY0.51$3.06
10-28 01:23Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?SELL0.58$2.32
10-27 22:33Will the New York Giants make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?SELL0.56$10.08