0x4421eA94E6bD90A58Ba14496dfA01D6e68816287-1771866592393
0x4421ea94e6bd90a58ba14496dfa01d6e68816287
- Realised P&L
- $-12.47
- Volume
- $8.6k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $40.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Myles Garrett win the 2026 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? · No | 0.850 | 0.956 | $12.42 | +$1.37 |
| Will Anthony Santander win the 2026 AL Comeback Player of the Year award? · No | 0.952 | 0.986 | $9.86 | +$0.34 |
| Will Alexander Zverev be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP Rankings · No | 0.795 | 0.622 | $6.88 | −$1.92 |
| Will Jannik Sinner be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP Rankings · No | 0.080 | 0.375 | $4.88 | +$3.83 |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.675 | $3.38 | +$0.23 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.165 | $1.81 | +$0.06 |
| Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.075 | $0.90 | −$0.18 |
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.060 | $0.78 | −$0.39 |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.024 | $0.04 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.83at 0.198UFC 330: Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (Welterweight, Prelims)
- +$2.61at 0.347England vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners
- +$1.94at 0.217Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?
- +$1.68at 0.720Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5
- +$1.60at 0.695Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 22:15 | Will Arch Manning be the first overall pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft? | SELL | 0.34046875 | $5.45 |
| 09-15 21:16 | Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 09-15 20:57 | Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.04 |
| 09-15 20:52 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $0.67 |
| 09-14 20:26 | Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 AL Comeback Player of the Year award? | SELL | 0.81 | $8.10 |
| 09-07 15:07 | Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | SELL | 0.038 | $0.46 |
| 09-07 14:52 | Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.60 |
| 09-07 14:52 | Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.15 |
| 09-07 14:52 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.087 | $1.52 |
| 09-07 14:52 | Will Philadelphia Flyers be the 2027 NHL Eastern Conference Champion? | SELL | 0.93 | $5.58 |
| 09-07 14:52 | Will Oliver Marmol win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? | SELL | 0.99 | $5.96 |
| 09-07 14:52 | Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.20 |
| 09-07 14:52 | Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? | SELL | 0.88 | $5.28 |
| 09-07 14:52 | Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | SELL | 0.73 | $4.38 |
| 09-07 14:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.978 | $5.87 |