thedogofhellfire
0x440d6a0b41294f57af1f3047e3b38b005e630b63
- Realised P&L
- $-0.19
- Volume
- $819.83
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $48.65
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)7.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no one dissent the October Fed decision? · No | 0.800 | 0.730 | $15.33 | −$1.47 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $168 in October? · No | 0.490 | 0.420 | $8.82 | −$1.47 |
| Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.375 | $7.65 | −$6.63 |
| Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.310 | $6.51 | −$0.84 |
| Will the Republicans win Leavenworth County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.275 | $5.78 | −$4.30 |
| Will Chevron (CVX) Q3 oil-equivalent barrels per day net production (koebd) be above 4.1M? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.090 | $1.89 | −$3.15 |
| Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.074 | $1.56 | −$6.21 |
| Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50 and $2.60 in October? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.056 | $1.09 | −$1.06 |
| Will SB Energy's market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$3.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.02at 0.780Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?
- +$0.00at 0.850Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?
- +$0.00at 0.200Will American Express (AXP) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.00at 0.370Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $540 Week of October 12 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.110Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 04:45 | Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2? | SELL | 0.81 | $0.81 |