Donkolo
0x43f05ae1cbc007f07bbf34f6050f331238791b3d
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $1.91M
- Markets traded
- 329
- Open portfolio
- $4.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded329
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.426 | 0.245 | $3.5k | −$2.6k |
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.282 | 0.075 | $503.62 | −$1.4k |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.495 | $247.50 | −$147.35 |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.196 | 0.065 | $195.00 | −$393.97 |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? · Yes | 0.646 | 0.225 | $174.05 | −$325.95 |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.261 | 0.060 | $156.00 | −$521.99 |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.605 | 0.110 | $149.93 | −$674.33 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.583 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.2k |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? · Yes | 0.545 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$544.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$989.06at 0.783Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
- +$590.50at 0.900Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
- +$342.91at 0.978Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
- +$274.02at 0.965Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?
- +$204.41at 0.990Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 09:17 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.2k |
| 10-27 07:45 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $785.68 |
| 10-24 08:51 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.3k |
| 10-22 14:00 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.3k |
| 10-21 06:23 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.3k |
| 10-18 16:33 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.3k |
| 10-15 17:58 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.0k |
| 10-14 16:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 on October 14? | BUY | 0.999 | $228.77 |
| 10-14 16:41 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $59.48 |
| 10-14 11:46 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on October 14? | BUY | 0.999 | $110.03 |
| 10-14 11:44 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 16? | BUY | 0.996 | $64.74 |
| 10-14 11:44 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on October 15? | BUY | 0.994 | $4.97 |
| 10-14 11:43 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 14? | BUY | 0.994 | $497.00 |
| 10-14 11:42 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 14? | BUY | 0.995 | $497.50 |
| 10-14 11:42 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 14? | BUY | 0.995 | $104.01 |