robertcaldwell
0x439e01265ee45b7d3f6917f09200af2c75169d79
- Realised P&L
- $-6.86
- Volume
- $11.3k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $24.49
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.585 | $24.49 | −$4.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.41at 0.600Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?
- +$0.17at 0.991Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?
- +$0.17at 0.990Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?
- +$0.15at 0.990Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30?
- +$0.12at 0.995Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 03:22 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.7299999951 | $14.80 |
| 01-31 13:33 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $13.13 |
| 01-30 16:18 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? | BUY | 0.9979999702 | $19.07 |
| 01-30 12:14 | Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9979999994 | $23.70 |
| 01-30 12:08 | Will Opendoor reach $10.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $40.48 |
| 12-30 08:42 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999837 | $12.78 |
| 12-29 21:17 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | BUY | 0.996 | $6.11 |
| 12-29 19:23 | Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $24.06 |
| 12-29 19:21 | Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $53.33 |
| 10-30 21:53 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | BUY | 0.995 | $23.82 |
| 10-30 19:16 | Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $25.06 |
| 10-30 17:35 | Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? | BUY | 0.9979999952 | $28.41 |
| 09-29 17:45 | Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $15.01 |
| 09-29 14:25 | Lisa Cook arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.9969999953 | $15.28 |
| 09-29 05:29 | Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao by September 30? | BUY | 0.9949999244 | $11.19 |