0x4397b21519cb8204713ac19e8e3fa69ffa56f870
- Realised P&L
- $-12.53
- Volume
- $509.00
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $40.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.51at 0.620Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.06at 0.170Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
- +$0.05at 0.750Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?
- +$0.05at 0.936China coup attempt before 2027?
- +$0.03at 0.970Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 03:00 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.077 | $1.16 |
| 06-13 16:05 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $8.19 |
| 06-11 15:41 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.02 |
| 06-08 07:56 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $1.32 |
| 06-06 01:54 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $6.30 |
| 06-03 18:31 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.871 | $8.71 |
| 06-01 03:20 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.53 |
| 05-26 20:56 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.33 | $3.63 |
| 05-22 05:02 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 05-22 05:01 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.55 |
| 04-24 20:18 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $11.20 |
| 04-24 20:18 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $4.62 |
| 04-24 20:18 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.05 |
| 04-24 20:18 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.208 | $2.50 |
| 04-19 20:11 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.064 | $1.41 |