0x437b8749ebbc7dda4d64079d27573b32ab441d11
- Realised P&L
- $10.7k
- Volume
- $276.6k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $5.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.080 | $5.7k | −$1.3k |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-19? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.565 | $135.91 | −$1.20 |
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.715 | $2.94 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.8kat 0.173Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$6.1kat 0.388Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-16?
- +$3.8kat 0.481Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?
- +$3.4kat 0.373Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-13?
- +$901.39at 0.670Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 03:21 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-19? | BUY | 0.57 | $127.11 |
| 09-15 21:33 | Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-16? | BUY | 0.53 | $81.51 |
| 09-15 21:14 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-19? | BUY | 0.5699999886 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 20:52 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-15? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.42 |
| 09-15 20:51 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-15? | SELL | 0.999 | $899.10 |
| 09-14 12:03 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-15? | BUY | 0.7 | $631.00 |
| 09-13 21:01 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-13? | SELL | 0.999 | $0.56 |
| 09-13 21:00 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-13? | SELL | 0.999 | $644.36 |
| 09-13 16:20 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.79 | $510.00 |
| 09-13 16:15 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-13? | SELL | 0.999 | $517.48 |
| 09-12 20:59 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12? | SELL | 0.999 | $0.76 |
| 09-12 20:58 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12? | SELL | 0.999 | $446.55 |
| 09-11 17:05 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-12? | BUY | 0.6699999993 | $300.00 |
| 09-11 17:00 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.17 | $323.76 |
| 09-11 05:10 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3899999992 | $77.45 |