sergey.smile84206
0x437adfbb5b239086acb1985014a55b2272c098e7
- Realised P&L
- $-11.74
- Volume
- $296.99
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $6.29
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration84.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.284 | 0.205 | $5.75 | −$2.22 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.315 | $0.54 | −$0.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.27at 0.408Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
- +$0.60at 0.470Next Claude Opus released by November 30, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$0.00at 0.500CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 19:42 | Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31? | SELL | 0.51 | $10.20 |
| 09-22 19:41 | Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31? | SELL | 0.252795 | $5.06 |