dicipline
0x436cd0bef4be95ac6207decea1e1b147c472c63b
- Realised P&L
- $-31.87
- Volume
- $12.9k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $296.00
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chainlink reach $18 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.345 | $248.40 | +$46.80 |
| Will Chainlink reach $22 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.567 | 0.135 | $47.61 | −$152.39 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 13? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.06at 0.720Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?
- +$40.53at 0.959Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January?
- +$9.18at 0.992Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$5.28at 0.995Lighter Airdrop on December 20?
- +$5.17at 0.996Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-24 16:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 27? | BUY | 0.997 | $99.69 |
| 06-24 16:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 27? | BUY | 0.998 | $166.72 |
| 06-24 16:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 22-28? | BUY | 0.996 | $20.02 |
| 06-24 16:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? | BUY | 0.996 | $99.60 |
| 06-24 16:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? | BUY | 0.996 | $18.03 |
| 05-02 17:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.00 |
| 05-02 17:06 | Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | SELL | 0.8461474358 | $507.68 |
| 05-02 17:05 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.1k |
| 04-30 11:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.1k |
| 01-04 21:19 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | BUY | 0.959 | $947.95 |
| 01-04 21:07 | Will Chainlink reach $22 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5671641782 | $200.00 |
| 12-24 16:44 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.9919999995 | $1.1k |
| 12-19 09:32 | Lighter Airdrop on December 20? | BUY | 0.9953633426 | $1.1k |
| 11-28 20:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.1k |
| 11-20 21:20 | Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? | SELL | 0.0762385517 | $55.27 |