0x436b9530e9ff4ce3cdff8119fc7e5afe50d7765c
- Realised P&L
- $-812.73
- Volume
- $80.2k
- Markets traded
- 1,705
- Open portfolio
- $43.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,705
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No | 0.690 | 0.455 | $13.19 | −$6.81 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No | 0.600 | 0.355 | $8.88 | −$6.13 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.470 | 0.280 | $5.96 | −$4.04 |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.977 | $5.42 | +$0.42 |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.548 | 0.840 | $4.29 | +$1.49 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.280 | 0.185 | $3.30 | −$1.70 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.305 | 0.406 | $1.33 | +$0.33 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.025 | $0.68 | −$1.82 |
| New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.040 | $0.08 | −$1.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$74.17at 0.560WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?
- +$70.69at 0.474Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings
- +$54.60at 0.449Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$45.30at 0.400Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$30.95at 0.502Will Trump praise Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-23 08:52 | Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | BUY | 0.262526813 | $4.89 |
| 06-17 15:09 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 06-17 15:09 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $3.41 |
| 06-17 14:49 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.7699999963 | $33.41 |
| 06-17 09:12 | World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo | BUY | 0.1399999945 | $19.49 |
| 06-16 18:10 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.67 | $10.00 |
| 06-16 18:07 | Will France win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.67 | $3.99 |
| 06-15 22:50 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? | SELL | 0.41 | $3.00 |
| 06-15 22:48 | Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.93 |
| 06-15 19:49 | Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.50 |
| 06-15 14:21 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.964 | $22.50 |
| 06-15 14:21 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.932 | $22.63 |
| 06-14 19:47 | O/U 1.5 Rounds | BUY | 0.5 | $9.85 |
| 06-14 19:47 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | BUY | 0.3299999394 | $1.96 |
| 06-14 17:11 | Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | BUY | 0.0170000004 | $1.00 |