dragon8000
0x43675cdb2bf7f10934dfea7f3252c3354a0e1933
- Realised P&L
- $-263.35
- Volume
- $13.4k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $50.99
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.470 | $31.49 | +$9.38 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.427 | 0.085 | $14.00 | −$56.37 |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.110 | $5.50 | −$19.50 |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$383.97at 0.399Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
- +$161.07at 0.501Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
- +$41.67at 0.420Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?
- +$35.39at 0.670European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
- +$30.56at 0.480Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 20:28 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $4.38 |
| 09-10 11:07 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.329999967 | $1.50 |
| 09-03 08:55 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.066 | $0.24 |
| 08-27 10:39 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9939998171 | $5.00 |
| 04-05 07:34 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.68 |
| 03-13 21:10 | Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.00 |
| 03-13 20:47 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1539998814 | $1.00 |
| 03-13 20:43 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.2219998521 | $1.00 |
| 03-13 20:43 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |
| 03-13 20:42 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 03-13 20:30 | Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.7599998024 | $2.00 |
| 02-28 19:42 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.042 | $14.20 |
| 02-28 19:17 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.3769112436 | $127.40 |
| 01-05 11:32 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999506 | $2.18 |
| 01-05 11:29 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $89.69 |