Belka19
0x435ac05d2288e173a74d6cb3be6cf3c7fdcf818b
- Realised P&L
- $5.06
- Volume
- $5.8k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $74.62
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.055 | $15.21 | −$7.86 |
| Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.141 | $14.05 | +$7.25 |
| Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.029 | $11.60 | −$3.70 |
| Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.020 | $8.78 | −$7.65 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.049 | $7.18 | −$3.60 |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.015 | $6.63 | −$5.73 |
| Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.049 | $4.71 | −$0.80 |
| Will Ken Welch win the St. Petersburg mayoral election? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.042 | $4.57 | −$4.62 |
| Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.004 | $1.89 | −$7.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.78at 0.181Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$10.36at 0.192Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$5.90at 0.120Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- +$0.60at 0.680Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
- +$-0.20at 0.722Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 12:49 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $2.50 |
| 10-29 12:48 | Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.053 | $1.06 |
| 10-29 12:47 | Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.039 | $0.37 |
| 10-29 12:47 | Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.019 | $0.78 |
| 10-29 12:46 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.064 | $1.51 |
| 10-29 12:45 | Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.034 | $0.59 |
| 10-29 12:45 | Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $4.00 |
| 10-29 12:45 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $0.40 |
| 10-29 12:44 | Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.03 | $6.00 |
| 10-29 12:43 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | SELL | 0.092261524 | $12.75 |
| 10-29 12:43 | Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | SELL | 0.18 | $22.45 |
| 10-28 13:31 | Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.028 | $2.24 |
| 10-28 13:31 | Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.059 | $3.40 |
| 10-28 13:30 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.068 | $6.80 |
| 10-28 13:30 | Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.047 | $1.76 |