Moonraven
0x43556df4fd8a90860b1314323acb4fdde310c5d4
- Realised P&L
- $-15.9k
- Volume
- $2.27M
- Markets traded
- 636
- Open portfolio
- $77.06
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded636
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.690 | $69.00 | +$20.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 1.000 | $8.06 | +$3.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.4kat 0.315Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
- +$5.4kat 0.325Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
- +$4.8kat 0.045Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
- +$4.3kat 0.111Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?
- +$4.1kat 0.111Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 22:57 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.619999933 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 23:27 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $18.00 |
| 09-19 00:12 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.021 | $10.00 |
| 09-14 13:52 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999985 | $400.00 |
| 09-14 00:45 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $0.42 |
| 09-14 00:38 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $24.00 |
| 09-11 13:04 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.3679030374 | $182.66 |
| 09-11 10:05 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.46 |
| 09-11 01:22 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.02314055 | $9.26 |
| 09-11 00:46 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.50 |
| 09-11 00:46 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $500.00 |
| 09-11 00:45 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.0297117438 | $8.35 |
| 09-07 14:41 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $134.14 |
| 09-05 17:31 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.3235293775 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 17:29 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.7447347255 | $100.00 |