arievien88
0x432a7a7156fbe44d8f98f5f2b73c8e10ad082275
- Realised P&L
- $-10.09
- Volume
- $311.04
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $6.03
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the MD-06 House seat? · Yes | 0.129 | 0.055 | $6.03 | −$8.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.02at 0.943New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
- +$-0.02at 0.932Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?
- +$-0.03at 0.746Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
- +$-0.10at 0.773GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$-0.36at 0.105Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 07:59 | Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.68 |
| 06-05 06:30 | Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | BUY | 0.1027271834 | $1.00 |
| 06-05 06:06 | Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.73 | $0.99 |
| 06-05 06:05 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | SELL | 0.93 | $0.99 |
| 06-05 05:59 | Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat? | SELL | 0.919 | $1.19 |
| 06-03 07:34 | New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | BUY | 0.9399996992 | $1.00 |
| 06-03 07:34 | Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 06-03 07:34 | Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.9299999845 | $1.20 |
| 06-03 04:22 | Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $4.92 |
| 06-02 23:03 | GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.76 | $2.99 |
| 06-01 14:02 | Will the Republican Party win the MD-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.00 |
| 06-01 14:01 | GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7599999595 | $3.00 |
| 06-01 14:01 | Will the Republican Party win the MD-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.00 |
| 06-01 13:51 | Will the Republican Party win the MD-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.3099999426 | $2.16 |
| 06-01 13:50 | Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999685 | $2.54 |