0x43242735CcC46DedEb81DFC4E1e2E4d9CF7e100e-1776555186397
0x43242735ccc46dedeb81dfc4e1e2e4d9cf7e100e
- Realised P&L
- $281.34
- Volume
- $88.1k
- Markets traded
- 1,223
- Open portfolio
- $9.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,223
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.955 | $4.78 | +$0.03 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on October 3? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.925 | $4.62 | −$0.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 17? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on September 18? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 27? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.90 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 16°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.34 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 16? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 23? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$214.62at 0.189Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
- +$99.00at 0.010Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
- +$85.09at 0.856Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
- +$53.20at 0.658Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
- +$47.10at 0.685Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 07:07 | Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.94 | $4.69 |
| 10-03 00:11 | Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 3? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.75 |
| 10-02 21:03 | Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 14°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.97 | $4.85 |
| 10-02 12:08 | Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 14°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.75 |
| 10-01 12:38 | Will the lowest temperature in Milan be 16°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.34 |
| 09-27 16:01 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.3499999804 | $1.79 |
| 09-26 12:01 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.3699999377 | $1.90 |
| 09-24 23:47 | Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 25? | BUY | 0.4799999687 | $2.45 |
| 09-24 14:44 | Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.8388814858 | $60.00 |
| 09-23 23:41 | Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.2307692166 | $1.25 |
| 09-23 11:39 | Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.99 | $4.93 |
| 09-23 05:52 | Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.34 |
| 09-22 12:01 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.04 |
| 09-19 15:40 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.3399999883 | $1.75 |
| 09-19 14:24 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 19? | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |