0x42e5fde15c9964e74deb28175adebbb3e16b6b73
- Realised P&L
- $-8.76
- Volume
- $608.00
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $48.95
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? · No | 0.978 | 0.979 | $14.68 | +$0.01 |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.895 | $9.85 | +$4.34 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.770 | 0.880 | $9.68 | +$1.21 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.959 | $5.75 | +$0.29 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.805 | $4.83 | +$0.09 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.215 | $2.15 | −$6.35 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.041 | $2.01 | −$2.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.51at 0.150Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.34at 0.536Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.09at 0.720Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.05at 0.890Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.03at 0.946Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-03 16:42 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.60 |
| 06-25 23:18 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $6.56 |
| 06-04 06:16 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.978 | $14.67 |
| 06-01 20:48 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.85 |
| 06-01 20:48 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $4.45 |
| 06-01 20:47 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.946 | $4.73 |
| 06-01 20:47 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.923 | $8.31 |
| 05-21 02:01 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.921 | $8.29 |
| 05-21 02:01 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.464 | $2.78 |
| 05-21 02:00 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.536 | $3.75 |
| 05-21 02:00 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.72 | $6.48 |
| 05-21 02:00 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $6.02 |
| 05-21 02:00 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $2.25 |
| 04-18 04:31 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $9.60 |
| 04-16 03:47 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.583 | $2.92 |