0x42d9CcB257A9661F0e64fFC8aE1A099D6e01f440-1773248726444
0x42d9ccb257a9661f0e64ffc8ae1a099d6e01f440
- Realised P&L
- $73.56
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $71.38
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.431 | 0.400 | $46.34 | −$3.66 |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.295 | $18.44 | −$11.56 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.021 | $6.61 | −$23.39 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.587 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$97.36at 0.193Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$48.15at 0.270Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$2.46at 0.670Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$0.49at 0.820US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 21:50 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.48 | $30.00 |
| 10-31 21:49 | Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.4315739502 | $50.00 |
| 10-30 04:59 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.4 | $148.15 |
| 10-26 17:26 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2699999995 | $100.00 |
| 07-08 16:10 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1879999939 | $22.67 |
| 07-08 16:09 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.14 | $35.00 |
| 05-11 15:28 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0929290734 | $25.00 |
| 05-11 14:59 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999926 | $2.23 |
| 05-11 14:54 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0939999836 | $5.00 |
| 03-11 17:33 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.6699999625 | $5.00 |
| 03-11 17:31 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? | BUY | 0.5299999982 | $15.00 |
| 03-11 17:18 | Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2399999883 | $14.00 |
| 03-11 17:15 | Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5870646629 | $10.00 |