PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

lalacar

0x42d5ed6248ba552c73004412db273dca944a070c

Realised P&L
$-281.08
Volume
$8.2k
Markets traded
39
Open portfolio
$416.26

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded39
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration32.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample16 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.8%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration58.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4770.305$244.00−$138.00
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? · Yes0.3900.795$79.55+$40.55
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4520.042$34.67−$338.34
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? · Yes0.2800.505$17.51+$7.80
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3330.105$15.75−$34.25
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1900.055$6.50−$15.96
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0830.005$6.08−$94.52
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0420.011$4.99−$14.83
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0470.004$4.20−$51.90
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0720.006$3.00−$33.20
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026? · No0.2200.000$0.00−$8.80
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? · Yes0.2700.000$0.00−$5.40
Scotland vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00−$0.49
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? · Yes0.2400.000$0.00−$4.80
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes0.9200.000$0.00−$92.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-22 02:50Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?BUY0.22$8.80
07-08 03:02Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.186$16.10
07-04 10:17Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.18$18.00
07-04 10:17Iran leadership change by December 31?SELL0.14$1.72
06-30 03:30Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceBUY0.51$15.30
06-25 01:35Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?BUY0.061$12.20
06-25 01:29Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?BUY0.21$2.10
06-19 03:11Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?BUY0.053$10.60
06-18 02:19Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco?BUY0.1$10.00
06-18 02:17Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?BUY0.27$5.40
06-17 05:28Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?BUY0.89$26.70
06-17 05:20Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?BUY0.76$60.80
06-17 05:19Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?BUY0.24$4.80
06-17 05:17Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?SELL0.51$10.20
06-17 05:17Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?BUY0.52$10.40