0x42cce211b7e1631ea35a8afb1bf0cfe5327b478c
- Realised P&L
- $-0.55
- Volume
- $26.71
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $7.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes | 0.750 | 1.000 | $1.33 | +$0.33 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.910 | $1.17 | +$0.17 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.895 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.300 | 0.330 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.705 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.415 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.250 | 0.115 | $0.46 | −$0.54 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.750 | 0.165 | $0.22 | −$0.78 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.075 | $0.17 | −$0.83 |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.530 | 0.085 | $0.16 | −$0.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.22at 0.450Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$-0.00at 0.502Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$-0.02at 0.510Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 16:26 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 08:25 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 00:11 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 16:09 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 08:00 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 23:59 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 15:59 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4499997975 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 07:58 | Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7099994391 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 21:00 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 01:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 16:57 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 00:21 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 16:20 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999699 | $1.00 |