0x42b316bd04bc6ed3d075ebf174e861fb883dc57e
0x42b316bd04bc6ed3d075ebf174e861fb883dc57e
- Realised P&L
- $-18.16
- Volume
- $43.4k
- Markets traded
- 316
- Open portfolio
- $385.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded316
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration4.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.46at 0.526US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
- +$31.24at 0.229Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
- +$29.83at 0.040Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$29.14at 0.430Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
- +$24.24at 0.385Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 23:36 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | SELL | 0.26 | $0.46 |
| 09-04 05:24 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $3.88 |
| 09-03 13:30 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.059999989 | $5.00 |
| 09-03 13:30 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0157255019 | $2.10 |
| 09-03 01:02 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | SELL | 0.31 | $5.15 |
| 09-02 15:30 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | SELL | 0.16 | $2.13 |
| 08-30 15:29 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | BUY | 0.3699999847 | $7.00 |
| 08-30 12:02 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.253 | $3.86 |
| 08-29 19:04 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $2.63 |
| 08-23 16:53 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999965 | $10.00 |
| 08-23 16:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | SELL | 0.21 | $5.73 |
| 08-23 02:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.83 |
| 08-22 14:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | BUY | 0.2199999736 | $6.00 |
| 08-22 14:06 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.127 | $7.07 |
| 08-21 17:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.83 |