mefirofan
0x4292c99987e418a2a6ec69f2ba9aa79086a44a08
- Realised P&L
- $-23.5k
- Volume
- $307.7k
- Markets traded
- 236
- Open portfolio
- $28.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded236
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.2kat 0.655Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$4.0kat 0.587Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?
- +$1.5kat 0.159Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$375.57at 0.750Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?
- +$368.54at 0.665Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 07:33 | Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $2.40 |
| 09-25 07:32 | Linera FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.08 | $2.40 |
| 09-25 07:31 | Ethos FDV above $35M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:31 | Ethos FDV above $25M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.40 |
| 09-22 17:57 | Jumper listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE? | BUY | 0.49 | $9.80 |
| 09-22 17:52 | Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $75M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6 | $35.31 |
| 09-20 13:32 | Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.976 | $58.55 |
| 09-20 13:32 | Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.976 | $97.59 |
| 09-18 21:05 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.49 | $37.96 |
| 09-18 21:02 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $925B by September 30? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.07 |
| 09-18 20:56 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.625T by September 30? | BUY | 0.322 | $35.44 |
| 09-18 20:54 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by September 30? | BUY | 0.54 | $4.81 |
| 09-18 20:39 | Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $22.80 |
| 09-18 20:35 | Extended listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE? | BUY | 0.62 | $105.19 |
| 09-18 20:33 | Extended listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE? | BUY | 0.5998097882 | $611.44 |