PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Alternates

0x427ce67130d1b6cbc30739800f0ee4e8340917b7

Realised P&L
$-827.80
Volume
$1.13M
Markets traded
346
Open portfolio
$130.75

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded346
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration34.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes0.0710.048$47.50$23.50
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? · Yes0.6501.000$40.00+$14.00
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3500.285$28.50$6.50
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? · Yes0.1500.050$9.90$20.10
Iran nuclear test before 2027? · Yes0.0600.049$4.85$1.15
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No0.1600.000$0.00$45.98
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? · Yes0.2500.000$0.00$25.00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? · Yes0.2780.000$0.00$55.56
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? · Yes0.0350.000$0.00$7.00
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? · Yes0.3000.000$0.00$15.00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00$5.00
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.2500.000$0.00$25.00
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? · Yes0.0320.000$0.00$31.98
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? · Yes0.5800.000$0.00$58.00
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.0490.000$0.00$44.09

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-06 20:41Iran Nuke before 2027?SELL0.08$16.00
03-31 00:48Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?SELL0.55$14.22
03-31 00:48Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?SELL0.5739990812$99.96
03-31 00:47Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?SELL0.001$1.00
03-31 00:44Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?SELL0.012$2.40
03-25 19:40Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?SELL0.04491125$8.98
03-24 18:17Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?SELL0.0160885133$3.22
03-24 18:10Starmer out by June 30, 2026?SELL0.44$202.40
03-24 18:09Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?SELL0.12694$12.69
03-17 16:12Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?SELL0.002$1.00
03-17 16:12Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?SELL0.003$0.30
11-29 02:00Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?SELL0.999$418.41
11-21 23:25Starmer out in 2025?SELL0.07$154.00
11-21 04:59US forces in Venezuela by December 31?SELL0.13$13.00
11-21 04:58US forces in Venezuela by November 30?SELL0.0396664889$11.90