Alternates
0x427ce67130d1b6cbc30739800f0ee4e8340917b7
- Realised P&L
- $-827.80
- Volume
- $1.13M
- Markets traded
- 346
- Open portfolio
- $130.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded346
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.8kat 0.016Will Sweden join NATO by February 29?
- +$1.3kat 0.217Will April 2024 show an increase of greater than 1.31°C?
- +$1.1kat 0.227Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?
- +$1.0kat 0.124Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?
- +$925.09at 0.163Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-06 20:41 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $16.00 |
| 03-31 00:48 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | SELL | 0.55 | $14.22 |
| 03-31 00:48 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | SELL | 0.5739990812 | $99.96 |
| 03-31 00:47 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 03-31 00:44 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | SELL | 0.012 | $2.40 |
| 03-25 19:40 | Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? | SELL | 0.04491125 | $8.98 |
| 03-24 18:17 | Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23? | SELL | 0.0160885133 | $3.22 |
| 03-24 18:10 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $202.40 |
| 03-24 18:09 | Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | SELL | 0.12694 | $12.69 |
| 03-17 16:12 | Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 03-17 16:12 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.30 |
| 11-29 02:00 | Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $418.41 |
| 11-21 23:25 | Starmer out in 2025? | SELL | 0.07 | $154.00 |
| 11-21 04:59 | US forces in Venezuela by December 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $13.00 |
| 11-21 04:58 | US forces in Venezuela by November 30? | SELL | 0.0396664889 | $11.90 |