0x4255aF68067EA2D1e984aB21966fA337407d2577-1767874726239
0x4255af68067ea2d1e984ab21966fa337407d2577
- Realised P&L
- $-87.09
- Volume
- $5.0k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $72.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.720 | $72.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET · Down | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET · Down | 0.064 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET · Up | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.00at 0.500Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5
- +$2.46at 0.670Patriots vs. Broncos
- +$2.45at 0.510Perth Glory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5
- +$1.85at 0.73049ers vs. Seahawks
- +$1.80at 0.090Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 11:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 11:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | BUY | 0.0599999995 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 11:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | BUY | 0.8457711409 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 11:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | SELL | 0.37 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 11:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | BUY | 0.75 | $25.00 |
| 10-12 11:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET | BUY | 0.3699999867 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 11:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | BUY | 0.0299999999 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 11:38 | Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.73 | $73.00 |
| 10-12 10:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | BUY | 0.006617508 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 10:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 10:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 10:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 10:44 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.062 | $1.22 |
| 10-12 10:44 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.177 | $3.93 |
| 04-13 16:10 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.961 | $10.06 |