wisemanmiles - 5742
0x424eea9dbf8257f8375a344ec3c656bc546feb0a
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $85.4k
- Markets traded
- 170
- Open portfolio
- $548.56
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded170
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the VT-AL House seat? · No | 0.962 | 0.981 | $255.06 | +$4.91 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VT-AL House seat? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.983 | $231.99 | +$7.89 |
| Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2028? · No | 0.860 | 0.855 | $42.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027? · No | 0.978 | 0.973 | $9.73 | −$0.05 |
| Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.695 | $7.64 | −$2.25 |
| Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? · No | 0.895 | 0.697 | $1.39 | −$0.40 |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.00 |
| Will St. Louis record the first snowfall? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.15 |
| Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman? · Yes | 0.684 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.002Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on November 30, 2021?
- +$1.7kat 0.001Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on January 6, 2022?
- +$1.4kat 0.000Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on December 31, 2021?
- +$1.3kat 0.005Will Tim Tebow score a touchdown in the upcoming NFL season?
- +$1.3kat 0.001Will Gavin Newsom be Governor of California on December 31, 2021?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-28 10:49 | Will the Republican Party win the VT-AL House seat? | BUY | 0.979 | $84.19 |
| 10-18 10:40 | Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.978 | $9.78 |
| 10-10 10:13 | Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2028? | BUY | 0.86 | $43.00 |
| 08-27 09:50 | Will the Republican Party win the VT-AL House seat? | BUY | 0.96 | $9.60 |
| 08-27 09:50 | Will the Democratic Party win the VT-AL House seat? | BUY | 0.9527426471 | $129.57 |
| 08-23 16:48 | Trump goes to space in 2026? | SELL | 0.983 | $29.49 |
| 08-12 10:02 | Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $9.90 |
| 08-12 10:01 | Will the Democratic Party win the VT-AL House seat? | BUY | 0.95 | $95.00 |
| 07-04 18:48 | Will Joey Chestnut Eat 70 or More Hot Dogs at Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest 2026(men's) | SELL | 0.999 | $60.26 |
| 07-04 12:13 | Will Joey Chestnut Eat 70 or More Hot Dogs at Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest 2026(men's) | BUY | 0.62 | $37.20 |
| 07-04 12:13 | Will Joey Chestnut Eat 70 or More Hot Dogs at Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest 2026(men's) | BUY | 0.61 | $0.20 |
| 07-03 18:40 | Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.895 | $71.59 |
| 07-03 18:38 | Will the Democratic Party win the VT-AL House seat? | BUY | 0.94 | $47.00 |
| 06-10 09:22 | McDonald's CEO out by June 30? | BUY | 0.989 | $39.56 |
| 06-10 09:21 | Trump goes to space in 2026? | BUY | 0.963 | $28.89 |