duncka
0x424e98c96493458fcdc987afd44afde235073520
- Realised P&L
- $-581.64
- Volume
- $30.9k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $42.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.019 | $24.38 | −$75.63 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.020 | $18.56 | −$39.67 |
| Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$391.11 |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
| Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$162.00 |
| Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.33 |
| Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-28? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$272.73at 0.110Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?
- +$214.74at 0.158US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$8.61at 0.050Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-27 18:35 | Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? | BUY | 0.0279979319 | $99.00 |
| 03-20 18:55 | Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? | BUY | 0.0539823791 | $49.82 |
| 02-23 09:18 | Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0627529453 | $58.23 |
| 02-23 09:17 | Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $100.00 |
| 02-23 09:12 | Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? | BUY | 0.0895316641 | $50.00 |
| 02-23 09:11 | Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1? | BUY | 0.0539274644 | $50.00 |
| 02-23 09:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0522149033 | $257.62 |
| 01-28 15:11 | Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-28? | BUY | 0.0899999985 | $50.00 |
| 01-28 15:11 | Will Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? | BUY | 0.129999998 | $49.00 |
| 01-21 09:29 | Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? | BUY | 0.0889038892 | $92.30 |
| 01-21 09:28 | Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1? | BUY | 0.1796299623 | $100.00 |
| 01-20 07:30 | Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 4% on any day in Q1? | BUY | 0.0788165926 | $50.33 |
| 01-20 06:49 | Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 5% on any day in Q1? | BUY | 0.25 | $12.00 |
| 01-20 05:57 | Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? | BUY | 0.1231509624 | $100.00 |
| 01-18 14:19 | US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.0104279725 | $10.00 |