mikeisadegen
0x424a8be3747c7fd25a87d3f450f3d34ba1fa1b92
- Realised P&L
- $379.58
- Volume
- $147.3k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $2.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $2.94 | −$0.98 |
| Villanova Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines · Villanova Wildcats | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.01 |
| Jackson State Tigers vs. Houston Cougars · Jackson State Tigers | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.77 |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? · No | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.75 |
| Toccoa Falls Eagles vs. Winthrop Eagles · Toccoa Falls Eagles | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.31 |
| Dominican (CA) Penguins vs. California Golden Bears · Dominican (CA) Penguins | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.81 |
| Northwestern Wildcats vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights · Northwestern Wildcats | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.72 |
| Norfolk State Spartans vs. Baylor Bears · Norfolk State Spartans | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$105.00 |
| North Carolina Central Eagles vs. Kentucky Wildcats · North Carolina Central Eagles | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.87 |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Purdue Boilermakers · Minnesota Golden Gophers | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Raptors vs. Hornets · Hornets | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.01 |
| Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. Virginia Cavaliers · Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.79 |
| College of Biblical Studies Ambassadors vs. Nicholls Colonels · College of Biblical Studies Ambassadors | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Georgian Court Lions vs. Temple Owls · Georgian Court Lions | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$305.37at 0.610Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?
- +$208.35at 0.544Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M?
- +$65.99at 0.972Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31?
- +$46.93at 0.992Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour?
- +$35.88at 0.956Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 13:16 | Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.92 |
| 02-10 03:25 | US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $30.00 |
| 01-25 12:09 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? | SELL | 0.998 | $102.79 |
| 01-23 20:39 | Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31? | SELL | 0.934 | $14.60 |
| 01-22 15:50 | Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-01-22? | BUY | 0.9299999934 | $4.21 |
| 01-21 23:25 | Maryland Terrapins vs. Illinois Fighting Illini | BUY | 0.95 | $2.02 |
| 01-21 23:17 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $234.25 |
| 01-21 15:59 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $22.11 |
| 01-21 15:58 | Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-01-21? | BUY | 0.954999967 | $6.36 |
| 01-20 12:37 | Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20? | BUY | 0.869999809 | $2.87 |
| 01-19 21:32 | Thunder vs. Cavaliers | BUY | 0.9099999933 | $5.41 |
| 01-19 13:06 | Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | SELL | 0.974 | $418.82 |
| 01-17 22:47 | Arizona Wildcats vs. UCF Knights | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 01-16 11:47 | Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-01-16? | BUY | 0.9489999951 | $3.30 |
| 01-15 12:10 | Hobart International: Iva Jovic vs Magda Linette | BUY | 0.8399999595 | $1.66 |