xZZZx
0x4226cf7b5f4072750ef4edbbb9248c7a4cdfaecf
- Realised P&L
- $-452.57
- Volume
- $13.0k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $102.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.169 | 0.160 | $72.36 | −$4.24 |
| Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.813 | 0.585 | $25.35 | −$9.88 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.610 | 0.895 | $5.05 | +$1.61 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · No | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$77.96 |
| Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? · No | 0.961 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$288.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$130.55at 0.871Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?
- +$110.45at 0.678Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?
- +$28.23at 0.790Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- +$25.38at 0.770Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 10%?
- +$14.03at 0.248Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 16:28 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999992 | $31.00 |
| 10-12 16:27 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $5.10 |
| 10-12 16:27 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $25.50 |
| 10-12 16:27 | Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 10-12 03:25 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | SELL | 0.34 | $44.20 |
| 10-05 14:30 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 5, 2026? | SELL | 0.8706092408 | $63.88 |
| 10-04 17:58 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.9539999995 | $70.00 |
| 04-25 11:18 | Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? | BUY | 0.95 | $22.13 |
| 01-08 22:08 | Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? | SELL | 0.09 | $77.96 |
| 12-20 02:10 | Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? | BUY | 0.69 | $58.37 |
| 12-20 02:10 | Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? | BUY | 0.68 | $26.23 |
| 12-19 20:07 | Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? | BUY | 0.2599999971 | $46.11 |
| 12-19 18:05 | Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $18.40 |
| 12-19 18:05 | Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $18.40 |
| 12-19 18:04 | Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? | BUY | 0.23 | $26.10 |