ChuroChad
0x41dc9d2c9d41f1cd2cad9085d399045a39701cf1
- Realised P&L
- $-805.91
- Volume
- $71.5k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.365 | 0.455 | $494.36 | +$97.32 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.659 | 0.715 | $478.55 | +$37.11 |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $116.12 | +$0.12 |
| Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.021 | $19.30 | −$0.70 |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.310 | $17.20 | +$2.19 |
| Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever · Indiana Fever | 0.168 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$138.48at 0.421Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$136.81at 0.262Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30?
- +$120.49at 0.207Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?
- +$119.12at 0.889Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?
- +$89.51at 0.605Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 21:19 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9613757986 | $76.75 |
| 07-18 22:54 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.9779999993 | $20.00 |
| 07-18 22:54 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.0290000001 | $10.00 |
| 07-18 22:50 | Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0230149597 | $10.00 |
| 07-18 22:49 | Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.021402525 | $10.00 |
| 07-18 22:48 | Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9645761401 | $71.07 |
| 07-17 22:19 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.72 | $178.24 |
| 07-17 20:46 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.72 | $244.15 |
| 07-17 20:46 | Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.947 | $153.59 |
| 07-17 20:44 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.72 | $301.42 |
| 07-17 05:09 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.6266890756 | $37.29 |
| 07-16 23:04 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $42.24 |
| 07-16 23:04 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $84.48 |
| 07-16 23:03 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.42 | $128.71 |
| 07-16 23:02 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.957 | $499.42 |