0x41c9b01b03518a0f2917e955a02353d3d535716b
- Realised P&L
- $-200.07
- Volume
- $4.3k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $181.62
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration81.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.175 | $84.78 | −$12.11 |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.723 | $72.25 | +$4.25 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.007 | $24.59 | −$80.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.24at 0.590Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?
- +$10.00at 0.500Will Trump say "Family" 5+ times during remarks in Georgia?
- +$-10.00at 0.620Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
- +$-57.85at 0.501Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?
- +$-100.00at 0.690Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 13:45 | US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $96.89 |
| 07-28 10:46 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July? | BUY | 0.8299999977 | $50.00 |
| 07-24 09:54 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0360516238 | $100.00 |
| 07-24 09:49 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29? | BUY | 0.51 | $7.85 |
| 07-24 07:33 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24? | BUY | 0.689999999 | $100.00 |
| 07-23 10:38 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23? | BUY | 0.6199999864 | $10.00 |