Szabika
0x41c2bcbef2c99363cc8e25212201935e231ff57e
- Realised P&L
- $-108.72
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $43.42
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.076 | $25.33 | +$15.33 |
| Will Christine Lagarde win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.042 | $9.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.058 | $8.26 | −$1.74 |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? · No | 0.930 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.95at 0.815Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
- +$6.72at 0.870Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$5.87at 0.773Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Germany by Feburary 1?
- +$5.04at 0.888Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
- +$1.98at 0.910Will the US strike ≤3 countries in January 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 14:19 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0299999999 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 14:13 | Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0702380949 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 14:12 | Will Christine Lagarde win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0427255482 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 05:38 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.849999992 | $64.00 |
| 05-12 21:16 | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8087607458 | $52.21 |
| 04-12 14:40 | Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8699999981 | $45.00 |
| 02-18 12:56 | Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? | BUY | 0.93 | $80.00 |
| 02-14 11:54 | Nancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28? | SELL | 0.28 | $2.15 |
| 02-13 07:06 | US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9789999997 | $77.08 |
| 02-11 09:34 | Nancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28? | BUY | 0.3899999558 | $3.00 |
| 02-10 08:33 | Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.8879999984 | $40.00 |
| 01-21 16:57 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9849999778 | $29.00 |
| 01-20 17:32 | Will the US strike ≤3 countries in January 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999995 | $20.00 |
| 01-20 13:05 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $30.00 |
| 01-18 21:51 | Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Germany by Feburary 1? | BUY | 0.7729889647 | $20.00 |