0x41bcf310c381d3dbd633f15e767bbb61e9697b53
0x41bcf310c381d3dbd633f15e767bbb61e9697b53
- Realised P&L
- $26.97
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 121
- Open portfolio
- $10.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded121
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.915 | 0.905 | $3.92 | −$0.04 |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.495 | $1.90 | −$0.02 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.685 | $1.27 | −$0.07 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.265 | $1.14 | −$0.02 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.270 | 0.265 | $1.14 | −$0.02 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 13? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.023 | $0.70 | −$1.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$60.00at 0.032Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
- +$10.17at 0.333Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
- +$8.34at 0.100Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
- +$7.60at 0.404Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
- +$5.97at 0.464Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 15:22 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October? | BUY | 0.7199998925 | $1.34 |
| 10-13 15:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 14:12 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9199999628 | $1.98 |
| 10-13 14:12 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9099996553 | $1.98 |
| 10-13 14:11 | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.92 |
| 10-13 13:24 | Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 13? | BUY | 0.056 | $1.83 |
| 10-13 13:22 | Will Bitcoin dip to $81,000 on October 13? | BUY | 0.9459999866 | $1.98 |
| 10-13 12:16 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 13? | SELL | 0.54 | $0.05 |
| 10-13 12:15 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 13? | SELL | 0.53 | $2.66 |
| 10-13 11:23 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 13? | BUY | 0.3299999861 | $1.90 |
| 10-13 11:23 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on October 13? | BUY | 0.3599999848 | $1.90 |
| 10-13 11:22 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 13? | BUY | 0.3799999841 | $1.91 |
| 10-13 11:22 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 13? | BUY | 0.3599999698 | $1.91 |
| 10-13 10:09 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | BUY | 0.5799999156 | $1.10 |
| 10-13 10:09 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | BUY | 0.5299999176 | $1.93 |