Vegetadu35
0x41bb67330433833ad4077b5b441d8bf183802eb6
- Realised P&L
- $229.68
- Volume
- $15.1k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.324 | 0.432 | $1.9k | +$474.39 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.877 | 0.875 | $371.06 | −$0.94 |
| Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election? · Yes | 0.918 | 0.875 | $285.80 | −$14.20 |
| Will Andris Kulbergs be the next Prime Minister of Latvia? · Yes | 0.927 | 0.989 | $221.95 | +$13.95 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? · Yes | 0.882 | 0.925 | $186.68 | +$8.68 |
| Will Miroslava Ferancová be the next Mayor of Olomouc? · Yes | 0.838 | 0.946 | $175.45 | +$20.06 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No | 0.880 | 0.915 | $102.94 | +$3.94 |
| Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? · No | 0.967 | 0.969 | $50.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.735 | $31.47 | +$1.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$64.31at 0.814Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?
- +$57.44at 0.824Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
- +$42.89at 0.875Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?
- +$35.41at 0.738Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- +$33.70at 0.839Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 04:35 | Will Miroslava Ferancová be the next Mayor of Olomouc? | BUY | 0.8378349732 | $155.39 |
| 09-29 01:46 | Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election? | BUY | 0.8542281877 | $148.00 |
| 09-29 01:43 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? | BUY | 0.8819999998 | $178.00 |
| 09-26 20:51 | Will Andris Kulbergs be the next Prime Minister of Latvia? | BUY | 0.9268564621 | $208.00 |
| 09-22 22:43 | Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections? | BUY | 0.92 | $135.00 |
| 09-22 22:39 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3839999997 | $350.00 |
| 09-22 22:38 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.87 | $496.96 |
| 09-22 22:35 | Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections? | BUY | 0.9199999993 | $56.00 |
| 09-22 13:00 | Will Fabio Roscioli win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election? | BUY | 0.8817586006 | $197.10 |
| 09-13 10:33 | Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | BUY | 0.7671661451 | $61.00 |
| 09-13 10:29 | Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down? | SELL | 0.999 | $61.57 |
| 09-11 13:48 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8899999998 | $106.00 |
| 09-11 13:46 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3449999994 | $100.00 |
| 09-10 22:50 | Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | BUY | 0.72 | $18.00 |
| 09-10 22:47 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.8099999919 | $15.00 |