0x41b1783da7ca45866598bc607be59cf910ccf9fa
- Realised P&L
- $-4.02
- Volume
- $180.84
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $3.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.630 | 1.000 | $1.59 | +$0.59 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.800 | 0.895 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.230 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.480 | 0.115 | $0.24 | −$0.76 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$3.08at 0.400Will Trump say "Think About It" during remarks in New York?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$2.21at 0.480Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during remarks in New York?
- +$1.83at 0.462Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 19:46 | Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 11:05 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 00:07 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 15:00 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 06:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 20:15 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 23:43 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 15:31 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 07:12 | LAPTOP airdrop by September 9? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 20:18 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 12:09 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-05 13:48 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.92 |
| 09-03 23:12 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 08-23 05:45 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7479999387 | $2.00 |
| 08-22 21:33 | Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |