AlexHartdegen
0x41a9683243884475c003fcb66ca2e8408431fce9
- Realised P&L
- $-81.42
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $21.14
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.029 | $12.95 | −$7.04 |
| Will Justin Herbert win the 2026 NFL MVP? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.030 | $8.18 | −$21.82 |
| UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) · Conor McGregor | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.00 |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) · Ian Machado Garry | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.48at 0.215UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 01:08 | Will Justin Herbert win the 2026 NFL MVP? | BUY | 0.1099999999 | $30.00 |
| 09-10 01:08 | Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.044 | $20.00 |
| 08-16 03:05 | UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2699999952 | $36.00 |
| 08-15 22:47 | UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2699999896 | $15.00 |
| 07-11 16:58 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2899999907 | $20.00 |
| 06-14 19:55 | UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2099999852 | $9.76 |
| 06-03 00:27 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $18.00 |