0x41a0da3bcf03083a0183e6452c8da2503b846e8e
0x41a0da3bcf03083a0183e6452c8da2503b846e8e
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $77.9k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $392.78
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration97.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.129 | 0.095 | $346.95 | −$124.36 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.055 | $45.83 | −$54.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$447.28at 0.210Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$10.83at 0.026Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
- +$-59.99at 0.015Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$-1.0kat 0.103Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
- +$-1.1kat 0.172Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 11:53 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $239.90 |
| 10-21 11:53 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0274728118 | $242.31 |
| 10-20 19:46 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0259773084 | $229.12 |
| 09-22 07:10 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $231.41 |
| 09-06 06:52 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.119999999 | $100.00 |
| 03-13 05:05 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2098235119 | $118.77 |
| 03-13 05:03 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.017 | $118.45 |
| 01-13 11:28 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999997 | $403.00 |
| 01-13 11:28 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.029 | $404.80 |
| 12-28 22:34 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999998 | $794.00 |
| 12-28 22:18 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999995 | $141.00 |
| 12-28 22:02 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | SELL | 0.006 | $40.00 |
| 12-28 18:52 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.0149999999 | $100.00 |
| 12-28 08:49 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $497.00 |
| 12-24 15:57 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $199.00 |