Serega38
0x419be42e6a9899d6ce2b443d17052a990b3f0944
- Realised P&L
- $55.6k
- Volume
- $524.1k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample43 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)67.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-01? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.998 | $1.4k | +$248.50 |
| Will Kenya win on 2026-10-01? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.035 | $233.98 | −$501.37 |
| Lightning vs. Stars · Stars | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.3k |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-25? · No | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
| Senators vs. Flames · Flames | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$389.31 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? · No | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$328.46 |
| Warriors vs. Timberwolves · Timberwolves | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-21? · No | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.1k |
| Spurs vs. Nets · Nets | 0.145 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$555.44 |
| Sabres vs. Penguins · Penguins | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$745.94 |
| Hurricanes vs. Oilers · Oilers | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$386.92 |
| Senators vs. Kraken · Kraken | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$387.49 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? · No | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$148.62 |
| Oilers vs. Ducks · Oilers | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$783.36 |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$245.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.2kat 0.780Thunder vs. Pistons
- +$12.2kat 0.780Thunder vs. Bulls
- +$10.8kat 0.830Cavaliers vs. Nets
- +$9.0kat 0.820Grizzlies vs. Heat
- +$5.7kat 0.450Panthers vs. Islanders
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 15:33 | Will Kenya win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.11 | $439.55 |
| 10-01 15:13 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.82 | $114.80 |
| 03-06 04:34 | Senators vs. Kraken | BUY | 0.47 | $387.49 |
| 03-05 13:50 | Hurricanes vs. Oilers | BUY | 0.46 | $386.92 |
| 03-04 16:53 | Senators vs. Flames | BUY | 0.4 | $389.31 |
| 03-04 16:24 | Sabres vs. Penguins | BUY | 0.51 | $372.97 |
| 03-04 16:22 | Sabres vs. Penguins | BUY | 0.51 | $372.97 |
| 03-03 18:00 | Thunder vs. Bulls | BUY | 0.78 | $43.2k |
| 03-03 09:26 | Hurricanes vs. Canucks | SELL | 0.28 | $42.00 |
| 03-03 09:25 | Hurricanes vs. Canucks | BUY | 0.2865534111 | $371.93 |
| 03-03 09:04 | Hurricanes vs. Canucks | SELL | 0.26 | $297.49 |
| 03-03 08:54 | Hurricanes vs. Canucks | SELL | 0.27 | $36.37 |
| 03-03 08:52 | Hurricanes vs. Canucks | BUY | 0.2719424202 | $347.79 |
| 03-01 20:07 | Cavaliers vs. Nets | BUY | 0.83 | $52.7k |
| 02-28 21:13 | Panthers vs. Islanders | BUY | 0.45 | $948.50 |