PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

HoweGAO

0x4199ed57bd9fb7fa0308b32f671b0744104103e9

Realised P&L
$-653.21
Volume
$17.5k
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$84.15

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration53.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample13 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)15.4%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration63.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? · Yes0.6400.655$53.27+$1.22
Ukraine lowers conscription age by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.3100.155$15.50−$15.50
Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Paulo Costa next? · No0.5400.455$9.10−$1.70
Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30? · Yes0.2200.065$5.53−$13.18
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30? · No0.5700.405$0.76−$0.31
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan · China0.0350.000$0.00−$521.46

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-10 07:03Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30?SELL0.16$2.40
10-10 06:45Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?SELL0.37$3.70
10-09 22:49SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?SELL0.35$17.50
10-09 22:48SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?SELL0.36$18.00
10-09 20:29Will New York Giants finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most sacks?SELL0.005$0.48
10-09 20:13Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?SELL0.2$20.00
10-09 19:52Will New York Giants finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most sacks?SELL0.142$0.71
10-09 16:57Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?SELL0.55$33.26
10-09 16:54Will MegaETH hit $0.10 by June 30, 2027?SELL0.21$21.00
10-09 16:53Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?SELL0.53$12.57
10-09 16:52Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?SELL0.35$35.00
10-09 14:21Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?SELL0.439998$44.00
10-09 14:21Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 20% to 39.99%?SELL0.1091806117$3.78
10-09 14:20Will Donyell Malen (Roma) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Serie A season?SELL0.74$14.80
10-09 14:20Will Noah Wyle be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?SELL0.5164261538$33.57