HoweGAO
0x4199ed57bd9fb7fa0308b32f671b0744104103e9
- Realised P&L
- $-653.21
- Volume
- $17.5k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $84.15
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)15.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.655 | $53.27 | +$1.22 |
| Ukraine lowers conscription age by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.155 | $15.50 | −$15.50 |
| Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Paulo Costa next? · No | 0.540 | 0.455 | $9.10 | −$1.70 |
| Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.065 | $5.53 | −$13.18 |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30? · No | 0.570 | 0.405 | $0.76 | −$0.31 |
| AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan · China | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$521.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.42at 0.460Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
- +$1.22at 0.520Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?
- +$-0.15at 0.800Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026?
- +$-0.39at 0.750Will Donyell Malen (Roma) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Serie A season?
- +$-5.74at 0.270Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 20% to 39.99%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 07:03 | Will Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by November 30? | SELL | 0.16 | $2.40 |
| 10-10 06:45 | Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30? | SELL | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 10-09 22:49 | SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.35 | $17.50 |
| 10-09 22:48 | SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.36 | $18.00 |
| 10-09 20:29 | Will New York Giants finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most sacks? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.48 |
| 10-09 20:13 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 10-09 19:52 | Will New York Giants finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most sacks? | SELL | 0.142 | $0.71 |
| 10-09 16:57 | Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.55 | $33.26 |
| 10-09 16:54 | Will MegaETH hit $0.10 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.21 | $21.00 |
| 10-09 16:53 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | SELL | 0.53 | $12.57 |
| 10-09 16:52 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | SELL | 0.35 | $35.00 |
| 10-09 14:21 | Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.439998 | $44.00 |
| 10-09 14:21 | Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 20% to 39.99%? | SELL | 0.1091806117 | $3.78 |
| 10-09 14:20 | Will Donyell Malen (Roma) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Serie A season? | SELL | 0.74 | $14.80 |
| 10-09 14:20 | Will Noah Wyle be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? | SELL | 0.5164261538 | $33.57 |