jhgk
0x4197cfa6a6d71dc2a977514069dc1b3f571b7778
- Realised P&L
- $-19.42
- Volume
- $10.6k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $15.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? · No | 0.998 | 0.999 | $13.41 | +$0.01 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? · No | 0.750 | 0.745 | $1.89 | −$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 17? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.90 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 6? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.30 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 15? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,700 on January 10? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.30 |
| Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.50 |
| Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.10 |
| Israel strikes Iran by September 30? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on December 7? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.00at 0.500Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)
- +$0.33at 0.983Ethereum above $2,000 on March 28?
- +$0.27at 0.974Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
- +$0.19at 0.998Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 15?
- +$0.19at 0.998Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 13:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? | BUY | 0.9979999783 | $13.40 |
| 10-08 12:59 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7499998026 | $1.90 |
| 09-25 09:21 | Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.30 |
| 09-25 09:19 | Spread: Chiefs (-10.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 11:55 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.30 |
| 06-09 12:59 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 06-06 01:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? | BUY | 0.9989999904 | $94.00 |
| 05-25 11:49 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 26? | BUY | 0.9989999904 | $94.00 |
| 05-21 09:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 05-15 11:13 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? | BUY | 0.998 | $93.00 |
| 05-09 12:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.00 |
| 05-06 07:40 | Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.00 |
| 04-30 11:56 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $93.00 |
| 04-25 08:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $92.99 |
| 04-19 09:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $92.99 |