PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x418F0B8Ce8A17b64c9E55A43A33F538bF223460B-1775983222984

0x418f0b8ce8a17b64c9e55a43a33f538bf223460b

Realised P&L
$-37.92
Volume
$244.90
Markets traded
23
Open portfolio
$5.94

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-15.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded23
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration48.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample16 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)43.8%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration26.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · Yes0.9881.000$1.55+$0.02
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? · Yes0.8601.000$1.16+$0.16
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election? · Yes0.9091.000$1.10+$0.10
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? · Yes0.9401.000$1.06+$0.06
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat? · Yes0.9300.986$1.06+$0.06
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? · Yes0.8900.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election · Yes0.9000.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-17 18:06Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ETBUY0.77$0.97
04-17 18:01Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ETBUY0.32$0.90
04-17 17:57Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ETBUY0.75$0.96
04-17 17:56Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ETSELL0.99$1.29
04-17 17:52Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ETBUY0.75$0.96
04-17 17:48Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ETBUY0.02$0.94
04-17 17:43Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ETBUY0.7299998102$0.96
04-16 08:29Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat?BUY0.9299999907$1.00
04-16 08:29Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?BUY0.859999914$1.00
04-16 08:27Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?BUY0.889999911$1.00
04-16 08:24Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?BUY0.9089999264$1.00
04-16 08:23Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?BUY0.9399996992$1.00
04-16 08:22Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY0.9$1.00
04-16 08:21Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?BUY0.9879999974$1.53
04-14 23:00Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-14?SELL0.38$3.55