0x418F0B8Ce8A17b64c9E55A43A33F538bF223460B-1775983222984
0x418f0b8ce8a17b64c9e55a43a33f538bf223460b
- Realised P&L
- $-37.92
- Volume
- $244.90
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $5.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-15.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · Yes | 0.988 | 1.000 | $1.55 | +$0.02 |
| Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? · Yes | 0.860 | 1.000 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.909 | 1.000 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? · Yes | 0.940 | 1.000 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.986 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election · Yes | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.68at 0.809Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A
- +$2.07at 0.706Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14?
- +$1.05at 0.792Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
- +$1.05at 0.489Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
- +$0.31at 0.764Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-17 18:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET | BUY | 0.77 | $0.97 |
| 04-17 18:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | BUY | 0.32 | $0.90 |
| 04-17 17:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | BUY | 0.75 | $0.96 |
| 04-17 17:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $1.29 |
| 04-17 17:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | BUY | 0.75 | $0.96 |
| 04-17 17:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $0.94 |
| 04-17 17:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $0.96 |
| 04-16 08:29 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 04-16 08:29 | Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 04-16 08:27 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 04-16 08:24 | Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.9089999264 | $1.00 |
| 04-16 08:23 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY | 0.9399996992 | $1.00 |
| 04-16 08:22 | Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 04-16 08:21 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.9879999974 | $1.53 |
| 04-14 23:00 | Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-14? | SELL | 0.38 | $3.55 |