0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961
0x418d51e13d019913bb027db22ecc723fe1ad88a3
- Realised P&L
- $83.4k
- Volume
- $5.15M
- Markets traded
- 440
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded440
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Texas (-8.5) · Oklahoma | 0.520 | 0.525 | $2.4k | +$22.50 |
| Will Notre Dame Fighting Irish win the 2027 CFP National Championship? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.125 | $737.22 | −$88.45 |
| Will Caleb Downs win the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.051 | $8.16 | −$15.84 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates · Milwaukee Brewers | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$960.00 |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers · Chicago White Sox | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$420.00 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox · Tampa Bay Rays | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$980.00 |
| Spread: Bengals (-3.5) · Buccaneers | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.5k |
| Louisville vs. Ole Miss · Louisville | 0.274 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.375 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$562.50 |
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) · Spain | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$375.00 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.431 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.3k |
| Spread: USC (-7.5) · USC | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.3k |
| Spread: Packers (-4.5) · Packers | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.7k |
| Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 · Under | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.3k |
| Seahawks vs. Titans · Seahawks | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.1kat 0.807Knicks vs. Cavaliers
- +$27.0kat 0.514Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$25.2kat 0.426Cavaliers vs. Pistons
- +$22.7kat 0.447Spurs vs. Thunder
- +$20.2kat 0.44776ers vs. Celtics
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 09:45 | Spread: Texas (-8.5) | BUY | 0.52 | $303.61 |
| 10-05 22:19 | Falcons vs. Saints | BUY | 0.48 | $1.9k |
| 10-04 23:07 | Chiefs vs. Raiders | BUY | 0.48 | $960.00 |
| 10-04 22:24 | Dolphins vs. Vikings | BUY | 0.23 | $71.99 |
| 10-04 20:30 | Broncos vs. 49ers | BUY | 0.64 | $6.4k |
| 10-04 20:22 | Spread: Seahawks (-6.5) | BUY | 0.48 | $2.4k |
| 10-04 20:20 | Spread: Vikings (-10.5) | BUY | 0.54 | $410.61 |
| 10-04 11:18 | Titans vs. Ravens | BUY | 0.86 | $12.0k |
| 10-04 11:18 | Spread: Ravens (-10.5) | BUY | 0.53 | $2.6k |
| 10-04 11:17 | Spread: Bears (-3.5) | BUY | 0.51 | $2.0k |
| 10-04 11:17 | Spread: Texans (-2.5) | BUY | 0.54 | $2.7k |
| 10-04 11:16 | Spread: Packers (-3.5) | BUY | 0.55 | $4.5k |
| 10-04 11:16 | Colts vs. Commanders | BUY | 0.66 | $2.0k |
| 10-03 23:05 | Miami (FL) vs. Clemson | BUY | 0.15 | $750.00 |
| 10-03 23:05 | Spread: Arizona (-6.5) | BUY | 0.54 | $3.0k |