777porto
0x41813b5dd979bd6f857e085dc9a13ea53079e4fb
- Realised P&L
- $-628.66
- Volume
- $24.7k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $102.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.560 | $90.30 | +$40.30 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.235 | $11.75 | −$1.25 |
| Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.50 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.59 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.50 |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$125.03at 0.670European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
- +$116.41at 0.835Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30?
- +$85.68at 0.841Will Ukraine control Demidovka on March 31?
- +$20.23at 0.892Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?
- +$17.18at 0.899Will Ukraine control Grafovka on March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 04:13 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | BUY | 0.5 | $14.60 |
| 10-26 04:13 | Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9857142857 | $13.80 |
| 10-12 19:53 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 10-12 19:53 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.3100775194 | $50.00 |
| 10-12 19:53 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $43.29 |
| 08-25 15:02 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9759995683 | $1.70 |
| 04-12 08:33 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.59 |
| 12-25 15:08 | Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15? | BUY | 0.9069058132 | $58.62 |
| 12-25 15:08 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by January 31? | SELL | 0.0951706842 | $58.63 |
| 12-20 20:40 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by January 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $70.34 |
| 12-20 20:40 | Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? | SELL | 0.62 | $70.34 |
| 12-20 20:39 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by January 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $69.09 |
| 12-20 20:39 | Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? | SELL | 0.22 | $69.09 |
| 12-20 20:36 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by January 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $28.06 |
| 12-20 20:36 | Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? | SELL | 0.23 | $28.06 |