0x417EE9Dc07D6275A03a0159d702DE1347cD0D690-1769565763463
0x417ee9dc07d6275a03a0159d702de1347cd0d690
- Realised P&L
- $-9.92
- Volume
- $6.3k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $2.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)59.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 17? · Yes | 0.965 | 0.962 | $2.48 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.98at 0.700Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-02-14?
- +$1.76at 0.530Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-30?
- +$1.74at 0.650Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
- +$0.54at 0.740Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?
- +$0.25at 0.922US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 16:55 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 17? | BUY | 0.9649999903 | $2.49 |
| 09-08 22:59 | Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.993 | $1.86 |
| 09-05 01:49 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.975 | $1.32 |
| 08-26 10:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9219997121 | $2.94 |
| 08-26 10:04 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | BUY | 0.9829999949 | $2.30 |
| 08-21 08:36 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22? | BUY | 0.984 | $1.90 |
| 08-06 05:33 | Will annual inflation be 3.2% in July? | BUY | 0.9589999734 | $1.08 |
| 07-18 08:58 | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.75 |
| 07-18 08:56 | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY | 0.971999998 | $1.94 |
| 07-09 03:57 | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium? | BUY | 0.988 | $1.69 |
| 07-09 03:56 | Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 Belgium? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.33 |
| 03-12 12:27 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2209998558 | $1.03 |
| 03-12 12:25 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999799 | $3.24 |
| 03-08 14:51 | Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.998 | $3.1k |
| 03-08 13:10 | Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.1k |