ManakeMega
0x417616024e48b10558baac2784ccd1834f72fd86
- Realised P&L
- $-3.3k
- Volume
- $394.1k
- Markets traded
- 816
- Open portfolio
- $18.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded816
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$255.84at 0.017Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28?
- +$195.90at 0.322Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 5?
- +$176.23at 0.180Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 9?
- +$143.20at 0.049Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5?
- +$140.22at 0.703Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 15:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.009 | $1.80 |
| 10-09 15:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 9? | SELL | 0.006 | $2.40 |
| 10-09 14:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.0476793 | $19.07 |
| 10-09 12:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 11? | BUY | 0.7 | $30.03 |
| 10-09 10:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.24 | $28.80 |
| 10-09 10:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.75 | $11.25 |
| 10-09 10:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9? | SELL | 0.27 | $24.98 |
| 10-09 07:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.24 | $28.80 |
| 10-08 17:54 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.354 | $35.40 |
| 10-08 17:40 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? | SELL | 0.687 | $1.72 |
| 10-08 17:23 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.652 | $66.83 |
| 10-08 17:13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.0668114 | $20.04 |
| 10-08 17:09 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.3226796 | $32.27 |
| 10-08 16:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 15? | BUY | 0.22 | $5.00 |
| 10-08 16:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 12? | BUY | 0.335650838 | $9.61 |