PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

ManakeMega

0x417616024e48b10558baac2784ccd1834f72fd86

Realised P&L
$-3.3k
Volume
$394.1k
Markets traded
816
Open portfolio
$18.39

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded816
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration32.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 14? · No0.2400.160$3.33−$1.67
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 10? · Yes0.0900.055$2.94−$1.87
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 15? · No0.3100.185$2.65−$1.79
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 13? · No0.3100.115$1.85−$3.15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 12? · No0.3360.063$1.80−$7.81
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 14? · No0.1700.055$1.62−$3.38
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 15? · No0.2200.070$1.59−$3.41
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 13? · No0.1780.030$0.76−$3.69
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 10? · Yes0.0900.013$0.67−$4.14
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 11? · Yes0.1100.013$0.57−$4.41
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 12? · No0.1500.013$0.38−$3.97
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 5-11? · Yes0.0700.018$0.18−$0.54
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 October 5-11? · Yes0.2300.004$0.02−$1.17
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 5-11? · Yes0.4000.005$0.02−$1.18
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 September 28-October 4? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00−$1.26

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-09 15:12Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 9?BUY0.009$1.80
10-09 15:08Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 9?SELL0.006$2.40
10-09 14:16Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 9?BUY0.0476793$19.07
10-09 12:00Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 11?BUY0.7$30.03
10-09 10:56Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9?BUY0.24$28.80
10-09 10:50Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9?BUY0.75$11.25
10-09 10:43Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9?SELL0.27$24.98
10-09 07:56Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9?BUY0.24$28.80
10-08 17:54Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9?BUY0.354$35.40
10-08 17:40Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9?SELL0.687$1.72
10-08 17:23Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9?BUY0.652$66.83
10-08 17:13Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 9?BUY0.0668114$20.04
10-08 17:09Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 9?BUY0.3226796$32.27
10-08 16:41Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 15?BUY0.22$5.00
10-08 16:19Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 12?BUY0.335650838$9.61