bonnie78
0x415e4e15cf4af9b5adb6a651e27ab493a09fa1e3
- Realised P&L
- $123.16
- Volume
- $3.5k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $39.74
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KHL: HC Sochi vs. Ak Bars Kazan · HC Sochi | 0.300 | 1.000 | $33.45 | +$23.41 |
| Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.230 | $4.09 | +$0.18 |
| Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · No | 0.400 | 0.415 | $2.20 | +$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.11at 0.516Lightning vs. Canadiens
- +$45.83at 0.37149ers vs. Rams
- +$29.19at 0.490Penguins vs. Devils
- +$19.30at 0.612Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 20?
- +$14.28at 0.681Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 14:13 | Will Chris Thomas be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man? | BUY | 0.219999991 | $3.91 |
| 09-18 14:11 | KHL: HC Sochi vs. Ak Bars Kazan | BUY | 0.299999997 | $10.04 |
| 09-16 12:54 | KHL: Lada Togliatti vs. Barys Astana | BUY | 0.5199999761 | $6.96 |
| 09-13 15:08 | Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.12 |
| 09-13 15:06 | Commanders vs. Eagles | BUY | 0.3099999912 | $10.24 |
| 09-09 14:18 | Will Matthew Rhys – “The Beast In Me” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie? | BUY | 0.24 | $3.96 |
| 09-09 14:16 | 49ers vs. Rams | BUY | 0.3599999984 | $26.25 |
| 09-06 08:02 | Will Shailene Woodley – “Paradise” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series? | BUY | 0.4649999371 | $3.88 |
| 09-06 08:00 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on September 7? | BUY | 0.6366860301 | $18.29 |
| 09-02 19:09 | Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins | BUY | 0.4899999688 | $3.77 |
| 09-02 19:07 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 3? | BUY | 0.7765495497 | $19.58 |
| 08-30 22:39 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 1? | BUY | 0.5299999834 | $11.50 |
| 08-28 02:27 | Saints vs. Cowboys | BUY | 0.5799999942 | $25.87 |
| 08-25 15:57 | Portland Fire vs. Dallas Wings | BUY | 0.2299999894 | $12.11 |
| 08-23 18:30 | Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on August 24? | BUY | 0.3986742092 | $17.02 |