danaschroeder
0x415d14ba09097527b61668162468cccf9ef55aa3
- Realised P&L
- $-16.15
- Volume
- $11.5k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $71.76
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.830 | 0.997 | $63.83 | +$10.69 |
| Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.775 | $7.93 | −$0.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.91at 0.437Liverpool wins the Premier League?
- +$2.51at 0.999Will Xi visit the US before May?
- +$1.01at 0.700Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3?
- +$0.20at 0.989Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
- +$0.19at 0.990Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 06:45 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999787 | $26.88 |
| 01-31 14:41 | Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.92 |
| 01-30 12:39 | Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.06 |
| 01-30 12:34 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.86 |
| 01-30 12:04 | Will Opendoor reach $11.50 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $31.68 |
| 12-30 09:16 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.19 |
| 12-29 22:39 | Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.61 |
| 12-29 22:36 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.9929999999 | $6.95 |
| 12-29 22:32 | Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.01 |
| 12-29 21:27 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999728 | $14.80 |
| 10-31 00:31 | Will XRP reach $3.40 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.41 |
| 10-30 23:37 | Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $15.92 |
| 10-30 19:25 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.9889999996 | $18.11 |
| 09-29 11:09 | Will Solana reach $270 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.01 |
| 09-28 21:54 | Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? | BUY | 0.9979999745 | $14.38 |