Toncar16
0x41583f2efc720b8e2682750fffb67f2806fece9f
- Realised P&L
- $119.9k
- Volume
- $4.52M
- Markets traded
- 1,744
- Open portfolio
- $2.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,744
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration23.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.7kat 0.257Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
- +$3.6kat 0.660Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
- +$3.3kat 0.089Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
- +$2.8kat 0.127Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
- +$2.0kat 0.319Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 14:13 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.3712122913 | $300.00 |
| 10-02 12:19 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | SELL | 0.35 | $174.54 |
| 10-02 11:33 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.3259677161 | $162.56 |
| 10-01 08:33 | KAA Gent vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners | SELL | 0.993 | $993.00 |
| 10-01 07:52 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? | BUY | 0.07 | $60.85 |
| 09-30 12:18 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.0134934033 | $18.60 |
| 09-30 12:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $295.50 |
| 09-30 12:04 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15? | BUY | 0.1510813151 | $59.33 |
| 09-30 12:04 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | SELL | 0.0041728314 | $19.93 |
| 09-30 11:49 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.0172147411 | $23.73 |
| 09-29 11:22 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $68.10 |
| 09-29 06:16 | Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30? | SELL | 0.0298657102 | $20.82 |
| 09-28 20:16 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.399713375 | $319.77 |
| 09-28 16:19 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5316666667 | $15.95 |
| 09-28 14:44 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5051451643 | $760.69 |