0x4148Fc19F7543cBF0944FACB32d464A8D3Be424F-1775630725878
0x4148fc19f7543cbf0944facb32d464a8d3be424f
- Realised P&L
- $-5.10
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Markets traded
- 156
- Open portfolio
- $75.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded156
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.02at 0.530Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- +$25.91at 0.040Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?
- +$20.00at 0.200Will 200 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?
- +$17.61at 0.073Will the US add at least 150k jobs in August?
- +$13.02at 0.349Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 14:39 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October? | BUY | 0.119 | $1.07 |
| 10-30 14:39 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.15 |
| 10-30 07:51 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October? | BUY | 0.22 | $4.40 |
| 10-30 06:44 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October? | BUY | 0.111 | $2.22 |
| 10-30 06:44 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October? | BUY | 0.21 | $5.25 |
| 10-30 06:44 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be below 51.0 in October? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.38 |
| 10-30 06:44 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October? | BUY | 0.23 | $5.75 |
| 10-30 06:44 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 59.0 in October? | BUY | 0.047 | $1.18 |
| 10-30 06:44 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in October? | BUY | 0.053 | $1.32 |
| 10-30 06:44 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 58.0 and 58.9 in October? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.26 |
| 10-30 06:44 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in October? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.10 |
| 10-30 06:44 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October? | BUY | 0.084 | $2.10 |
| 10-29 05:24 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 250,000 and 300,000? | BUY | 0.052 | $1.09 |
| 10-29 05:24 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 400,000 and 450,000? | BUY | 0.2 | $4.20 |
| 10-29 05:24 | Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 350,000 and 400,000? | BUY | 0.399 | $8.38 |