Noobynoob
0x41434a0f1213df6bc13914f4c01605a0810dd67d
- Realised P&L
- $6.9k
- Volume
- $2.26M
- Markets traded
- 928
- Open portfolio
- $2.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded928
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $2.58 | −$0.86 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.8kat 0.001Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.006Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
- +$864.22at 0.033Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?
- +$503.54at 0.023Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
- +$447.61at 0.040Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 19:27 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.05 |
| 08-13 19:27 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.0027535129 | $1.58 |
| 07-24 11:50 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.00338704 | $0.85 |
| 07-15 13:12 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.29 |
| 06-16 10:59 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 06-07 22:30 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.75 |
| 06-01 14:01 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.44 |
| 05-29 20:24 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3205063291 | $50.64 |
| 05-29 10:11 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.47115 | $94.23 |
| 05-28 12:56 | Will Dell say "Pope" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.72 | $28.80 |
| 05-21 21:05 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 05-18 22:42 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.659 | $19.77 |
| 05-18 22:38 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.6943081664 | $18.02 |
| 05-16 23:48 | Will Starmer say "Goon" or "Gooner" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.85 | $8.50 |
| 05-16 22:46 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.759 | $67.18 |